There’s a strange dichotomy between the complexity of high level sports handicapping and the amount of theoretical literature on the subject. While successful sports betting is a complex and difficult pursuit, there’s very little that’s been written on the subject from a serious theoretical angle. For that reason, it can be helpful to delve into the wealth of books available to the serious poker player for insights that can be applied to sports betting.
On one level, this is likely due to the fact that poker”like sports gambling”is a pursuit in which the knowledgeable and skillful practitioner can overcome the theoretical odds against him. To paraphrase the great poker theoretician Bob Caro, there are some professional blackjack players and sports gamblers in addition to professional poker players. There may even be a few professional horse players (though the house edge against the horse player is a hefty 17% or so). In the entire world, however, there is not one professional roulette player.
The simple fact is that the house edge in roulette cannot be overcome by any combination of skill, experience and/or discipline. When you win, it is because you get lucky. When you lose, its because you didnt get lucky. To add another Caro concept to the equation, the decisions that the player makes when playing roulette simply dont matter”at least in terms of overcoming the theoretical edge enjoyed by the house. In the long term, it doesnt matter whether you choose red or black, odd or even, or certain numbers. You may get lucky with your choices or you may not, but these decisions do not impact the house edge one iota.
Caro strongly emphasizes the importance of discipline at the table to a poker player’s long term profitability. The average person goes into a casino to “escape” from the real world–in other words, he goes into a casino to temporarily forget the need for discipline that exists in day to day life. He wants to have a few drinks, do a little gambling and enjoy a break from the mundane. Casinos exist to facilitate this ‘escape’ while using their mathematical edge to turn a profit. While poker operates somewhat differently in terms of the casino making money, the motivation that drives a recreational poker player to the tables is no different than in any other casino game.
Caro’s emphasis on discipline in poker is also true for the serious sports gambler. The foundation of a professional sports bettor’s long term success is to approach it with the same discipline, rigor and professionalism that he would any other job. If you continue to think about it in the same terms as the recreational gambler does, you’re in for a difficult road. The more seriousness that you bring to your sports betting, the higher the likelihood that you’ll be successful.
Now, I have no problem with recreational sports gamblers”or any other recreational gamblers for that matter. Recreational sports gamblers are, in fact, crucial to the survival of those of us who do this for a living. Theyre not our prey”like they are for the poker professional”but a thriving recreational sports gambling industry keeps the sportsbooks in business, and what I do is utterly useless if my book doesnt pay me.
If your goal is to bet recreationally, that’s great. Unless you have the dedication, desire and discipline to approach it at a profession a recreational approach to gambling is ultimately better for most people. You might benefit from some greater money management discipline, but at the end of the day as long as you don’t bet more than you can afford to lose it’s really no big deal.
Ross Everett is a staff sports handicapper for Anatta Sports and is in charge of providing daily free sports picks to a variety of Internet and broadcast media outlets. He is a widely published freelance writer specializing in sports handicapping, drag racing, clogging and falconry. He lives in Las Vegas with three dogs and a wombat.
